Some of ÅAC Microtec's recently acquired company Clyde Space's customers, orders and upcoming constellations for hundreds of millions SEK
2018-01-18 09:11Please note: Community posts are written by its members and not by Redeye’s research department. As a reader you’re always encouraged to critically analyze the content.
I would think that the merged company ends the year of 2018 with a total order value of at least 500 million SEK. Todays price target should be at least 25 SEK and that would signify a reasonable market cap of ca 1,8 billion SEK which actually is the minimum valuation this market-leading company with approximatly 40% of the market shares in a industry expected to be worth 80 billion SEK by 2022 should have.
These are some of the customers Clyde Space have that I've found through the web. It is really hard to find more information about their business and deals because most of them have been kept secret since Clyde Space is a privately owned company and such companies are secretively by nature and have no obligation to share intel of their business until they have gone public.
I would think that the merged company ends the year of 2018 with a total order value of at least 500 million SEK.
Todays price target should be at least 25 SEK and that would signify a reasonable market cap of ca 1,8 billion SEK which actually is the minimum valuation this market-leading company with approximatly 40% of the market shares in a industry expected to be worth 80 billion SEK by 2022 should have.
An exciting journey ahead with a huge pipe!
These are a handful of Clyde Space customers that were able to be found on the web (I have chosen not to include every company I have found) after a long time of searching, I really wonder how many other companies have been kept under the radar that I have not found yet. More than a handful I would bet.
A summary of some of Clyde Space customers with ordered orders and upcoming constellation orders:
SRT Marine Systems****: An order of at least 48 million SEK has been placed the 25th of september 2017! More Satellites are expected shortly.
OMS****: Upcoming 100 million SEK constellation order. An order of 4 Cubesats 3U have already been placed for ca 10 million SEK.
Seahawk: Upcoming 125 million SEK constellation order to come. Already ordered 2 Cubesats 3U for ca 8 million SEK.
Kepler Communications: Upcoming constellation order between 75-140 Kepler 3U, earnings between 195-364 million SEK. Already ordered 2 Kepler 3U test sats for at least 5 million SEK that are launching the 19th of january 2018.
FireSat: A possible constellation of 200 sats and incomes of at least 177 million SEK. Already ordered a smaller constellation of FireSats set to be launched may 2018.
Spire: Even bigger constellations of Spire Cubesats are expected to be announced shortly and Clyde Space are their biggest partner and subcontractor. Already ordered components by Clyde with an amount of 12 million SEK at a time.
Some of Clyde Space customers:
SRT Marine Systems****: An order of at least 48 million SEK has been placed the 25th of september 2017! More Satellites are expected shortly.
A microsatellite weighs between 10-100kg, while a CubeSat weighs between 1-10 kg. I have found out beneath that a Cubesat 3U costs ca 2,6 million SEK. It weighs aroeund 4kg. This would mean that a microsat weighs at least 3 times more and therefore it also should cost 3 times more, it can of course weigh even more and cost even more but it is better if we count the numbers low. So lets count low and assume that the SRT microsat weighs at least 12kg and costs therefore at least 3 times more than a Cubesat 3U, ergo ca 8 million SEK. 6 of these have been ordered and this means income of at LEAST ca 48 million SEK. 8*6=48
SRT announced that they want to launch even more microsats so this can be a very lucrative customer!
https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/cubesats/overview
“They can be 1U, 2U, 3U, or 6U in size, and typically weigh less than 1.33 kg (3 lbs) per U.”
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20170925005562/en/SRT-Leads-New-OCEAN-SCAN-Satellite-Vessel-Detection from 25th september 2017
“The OCEAN-SCAN system will initially comprise of six low earth orbiting (LEO) satellites. It is expected that additional satellites will be added in the future. OCEAN-SCAN is expected to be fully operational in 2019.”
https://srt-marine.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/SRT-OCEAN-SCAN-Satellite-System-Sept-2017.pdf
http://www.satellitetoday.com/newspace/2017/09/25/srt-marine-build-launch-satellite-constellation/ from 25th september 2017
SRT has selected Clyde Space to provide a microsatellite platform for the system, which will host a combination of sensor technologies, including Automatic Identification System (AIS) to enable accurate and reliable tracking of all types and sizes of vessels, with or without an identification transceiver.
Orbitral Micro Systems: Upcoming constellation of 100 million SEK
I see this intel beneath as that there are 4 CubeSats 3U that are supposed to be launched since there are 4 launches. Nanoracks will get ca 100.000 $ per launch 100k*4=ca 400.000 $ in average. Will then the remaining 1,3 million $ go straight to Clyde for their 4 Cubesats 3U? That would mean a cost on ca 0,325 million $=2,6 million SEK per Cubesat 3U which sounds reasonable since one Cubesat 1U then would cost 0,866 million SEK in this customer case, this is because Clyde is starting to massproduce and can therefore in difference to earlier cases like Seahawk give their customers even better prices, a huge competitive edge towards others in the industry.
When Clyde's customer OMS orders a constellation of 40 Cubesats 3U the income will be 2,6*40=104 million SEK.
http://www.satellitetoday.com/technology/2017/12/13/oms-miniaturized-weather-observation-tech-going-space/ from 13th dec 2017
NanoRacks will deploy the payload, consisting of a 10 by 10 by 15cm sized instrument in a 3U CubeSat, into Low Earth Orbit (LEO) via its CubeSat deployer on the International Space Station (ISS). Innovate UK has invested 1.5 million euros ($1.7 million) in the IOD program, which offers a CubeSat platform from Clyde Space and associated launch for four missions.
http://nanoracks.com/resources/faq/
“For internal payloads, our initial educational prices are as low as $15,000. For satellite deployment, our lowest prices are $85,000 for a 1U CubeSat, and higher for larger satellites.”
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-42270949 from 7th dec 2017
“US-based Orbital Micro Systems will launch their microwave radiometer aboard the 30cm-long spacecraft next year to retrieve temperature, humidity and precipitation measurements.
If successful, OMS plans a 40-strong constellation of similar satellites.”
Goddard Space Flight Center (Seahawk/SOCON): Upcoming constellation of ca 124,8 million SEK
These are one of the constellations that Craig Clark talked about in the presentation of the merged company! https://tv.streamfabriken.com/2017-aac-microtec-pressconference
My analysis of this is that there are 2 Cubesats 3U ordered yet since there are 2 launches. A launch is apparently costing 250.000 $ with Spaceflight and a CubeSat 3U is costing 500.000 $= 4 million SEK which means that a Cubesat 1U would cost 1,33 million SEK which sounds reasonable.
The customer tells us here that they want to make dozens of sats in constellations. So let's assume 4 dozens=48 Seahawks. As we have seen on OMS now Clyde has even better prices since their massproducing. So lets say that a CubeSat 3U would be sold for 2,6 million SEK. 2,6*48=124,8 million SEK in upcoming constellation order.
http://www.defense-aerospace.com/articles-view/release/3/175847/clyde-space-remains-at-forefront-of-small-satellite-industry.html from 27th july 2016
“Using 3U CubeSats, the first phase of SOCON (which will construct and launch two spacecraft) is expected to cost $1.7 million. Project leaders hope the mission will eventually consist of dozens of satellites providing global coverage and frequent revisit rates.”
http://www.satellitetoday.com/technology/2018/01/12/university-north-carolina-prepares-launch-ocean-monitoring-payload/ from 12th jan 2018
“Building the most premier sensor that we ever used cost about $14.4 million or more to develop,” he said. “Right now it’s costing us around $500,000 to build one of these satellites, and on the order of $250,000 for launch operations with Spaceflight.”’
Kepler Communications:Upcoming constellation between 75-140 Kepler 3U, income between 195-364 million SEK
Kepler Communication will the 19th of january 2018 launch their first Cubesats Kepler 3U. A Cubesat 3U costs at least 2,6 million SEK. They eventually want to launch 75-140 more Kepler 3U. So lets say 120 Kepler 3U. 2,6*120=312 million SEK in constellation order over a few years. It can be less and it can be more sats that will be ordered from Kepler. However a constellation is expected from them and it very likely to be bigger than 200 million SEK. 75 sats=195 SEK, 140 sats=364 million SEK income.
https://techcrunch.com/2017/02/16/kepler-targets-q4-2017-for-its-first-nanosatellite-launch/
“We’re looking forward to deploying the pilot service to eager customers as a next step,’ Kepler CEO and founder Mina Mitry told TechCrunch via email. “Demonstrated successful operation of our initial spacecraft will allow us to begin launching our larger constellation in late 2018, early 2019.”
“In the 22 months since opening its doors, Kepler has completed a $5-million seed round, ordered two demo satellites from Scottish smallsat specialist Clyde Space, and notified the Federal Communications Commission it intends to deploy a network of up to 140 Ku-band nanosatellites in low-Earth orbit to establish an in-space telecommunications network for spaceborne assets. “Put simply, we are building cell phone towers in space,” Kepler says on its website.”
“We envision that the size of the satellites will stay relatively small. Ideally, that would remain a 3U cubesat platform, but it has the potential to grow in size depending on customer demand. The number of operational satellites in the constellation will vary with time. In a few years, it could range from 75 to 140 operational spacecraft. But that will change as we are growing and serving more customers.”
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2018/01/china-aims-record-breaking-year-40-launches/
"The third launch of the Long March-11 solid fuel rocket is expected on January 19 from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center. The small Kepler 3U will be on this launch."
FireSat: A possible constellation of 200 sats and income of at least 177 million SEK
My analysis of all this info is that I have found an amazing life saving cooperation between NASA & Clyde Space on a constellation of 200 CubeSats (FireSats) that will soon be announced. There are too many coincidences that occurs and it is very likely that Clyde Space will provide the satellite bus to the Firesat constellation.
The order value of this kind of constellation of 200 Cubesats 1U is massive. In the customer cases above I've calculated that one Cubesat 1U costs at least 0,886 million SEK. 0,886*200=177 million SEK
Coincidence nr1, both mention the satellite as the FireSat, Clyde is as we speak building FireSats. Then NASA does not mention who will host their sensors and provide the satellite bus ergo the Cubesats, this is an area where Clyde Space is a recognized world-leader and since they are building these Firesats today it seems very likely they will provide the Sat bus for NASA 200 Firesat sensors.
Coincidence nr2, Clyde says that they will a smaller test constellation in may to then later on send additional FireSats, NASA aims to send their whole 200 sensors of FireSats in june, thus after the test that Clyde does to motivate a larger constellation and show that it is worth to send a much bigger constellation and also show that the technique actually works live.
Coincidence nr3, the pictures shown of the upcoming constellations from NASA & Clyde Space are exactly the same!
http://www.heraldscotland.com/business_hq/15509215.Clyde_Space_in_mission_to_identify_bush_fires/ from 2nd september 2017
“Mr Clark said turnover was on course to reach between £7m or £8m in the current year. He said: “Our order book has never been so big. We’ve just finished the first quarter and we’ve got about 70 per cent of our income for the year.
“It’s great, our pipeline has never looked so good, the market is growing really quickly and our performance reflects that.”
“This comes as the firm reported flat revenue for the year to April 2017 of about £5m, which Mr Clark said was because two major projects were delayed.”
“Lloyd’s insurance market estimates that the impact to the South African economy alone is approximately £225 million due to wild res over the past 5-7 years.”
“Project impact
• Reduce the damage to infrastructure caused by wild res;
• Reduce the injuries and loss of life caused by wild res;
• Develop skills in-country to provide continued development of resilient infrastructure and the use of space technology to generate solutions to in- country challenges. “
https://www.gov.uk/government/case-studies/clyde-space-southern-africa-wildfire-detection
http://www.fire.uni-freiburg.de/current/FIRESAT-Brochure-2017.pdf NASA Firesat
http://www.unoosa.org/documents/pdf/psa/activities/2017/SouthAfrica/slides/Presentation33.pdf 12th dec 2017 Clyde Firesat
Same picture NASA has, coincidence?
This image states that Clyde already has delivered a constellation for a test launch of 6-7 sats in may 2018. Then that additional sats are expected after the first launch. Nasa is supposed to launch its whole constellation in june, after that Clyde has tested their smaller one. Coincidence?
http://spacenews.com/nasa-lab-partners-with-startup-to-detect-wildfires-from-space/ from 26th nov 2015
“The FireSat system would host more than 200 thermal-infrared imaging sensors on satellites in low Earth orbit.”
“JPL and the companies did not disclose what satellites will ultimately host the sensors, but did say they expect to have a fully operational system in place by June 2018. Quadra stated on its website that the project is expected to cost $30 million, and will be financed through nongovernment grants, investment funds and debt.”
Is is Clyde that will host the sensors with their satellite-bus? Is it a coincidence that NASA does not mention who will host the sensors and that Clyde actually is building Firesats as we speak?
Spire: Even bigger constellations of Spire Cubesats are expected to be announced shortly and Clyde Space are their biggest partner and subcontractor! $$
Clyde Space is Spires biggest partners and subcontractor. Clyde's customer Spire recently got funding for additional 70 million USD in the end of november. My thoughts are that a new bigger constellation is to be announced soon since Spire wants to remain market leading and increase their precision.
http://www.defense-aerospace.com/articles-view/release/3/175847/clyde-space-remains-at-forefront-of-small-satellite-industry.html from 27th july 2016
“Clyde Space is a major partner on Spire’s constellation. With the signing of a GBP940,000 (about $1.5 million at the time) contract in 2014 for power systems and solar cells, Clyde Space became Spire’s largest subcontractor.”
http://spacenews.com/spire-raises-40-million-for-weather-satellite-constellation/ from 30th june 2015
“Spire, a company developing a constellation of cubesats to provide weather data to commercial and government customers, announced June 30 it has raised $40 million to complete work on the satellites and begin launching them later this year.”
“The satellites are already under construction in Glasgow, where Spire is working with Clyde Space, a local company experienced in cubesat development. “We are spitting them out as we speak,” Platzer said of the satellites.”
http://spacenews.com/lofty-aspirations-for-spires-weather-watching-cubesats/ from 17th september 2015
“In 2015, Spire plans to launch 20 triple cubesats. By the end of 2017, the company will have more than 100 satellites in orbit, said Chris Wake, Spire business operations director.”
“Spire’s forecasts showing multibillion markets for its data products have helped the company attract an estimated $80 million in investments. In June, Spire announced that it raised $40 million in its second round of equity financing led by Chicago-based Promus Ventures.”
With that money, Spire is building cubesats and wrapping up construction of its European headquarters, a 585-square meter office in Glasgow, which is also the home of Clyde Space Ltd., a key supplier and partner for Spire’s satellite subsystems, Wake said.
https://spire.com/company/insights/news/spire-opens-european-hq-luxembourg-raises-addition/ from 15th november 2017
“The Luxembourg Future Fund (LFF) has committed today to becoming a shareholder in Spire, participating in Spire’s $70m Series C financing round closing later this month.”
In conclusion****:
These customers that Clyde has are just a few of all of their customers and I have chosen not to mention every one since this text would have been to big. My analysis of all of this is that we can expect a really fun and exciting year for the company, this does not mean that we are going to get orders for 500 million SEK before the end of february.
We must give the merged company time to deliver and then all of their shareholder will in time have a huge smile on their lips.
I would think that the merged company ends the year of 2018 with a total order value of at least 500 million SEK.
By the way I really can not understand who chooses to sell the stock of ÅAC Microtec when we are under the price target of 25 SEK, we are entering in such exciting & thrilling times and soon we will find out even more about Clyde Space's activities but most importantly their businesses & deals. But I thank everyone that lets me pile up with stocks as long as we have this extreme undervaluation on this future multi-billion company!
Disclosure
This is not a recommendation. Always do your own analysis before buying shares. I own shares in ÅAC Microtec. The text above is based on my own interpretations of the companies presented material and articles on the internet. It may have some errors. Always do your own research before buying shares.