Questerre värdering m.m.

2010-12-29 16:49, Edited at: 2010-12-30 11:06

Questerre har stigit med drygt 40% på en månad. Nedan finns två viktiga händelser som jag har/tror kommer fortsätta driva på uppgången framöver.

Viktiga händelser:

17 december

Styrelsen i Questerre anser aktien undervärderad och kommer köpa tillbaka aktier motsvarande 5% under ett års tid. http://www.questerre.com/en/investorcenter/press-releases/2010/questerre-announces-normal-course-issuer-bid/

20 december

Talisman ingår samarbete med Sasol. Samarbetet rör sig om utvecklingen av Talismans tillgångar i Farrel Creek, nordöstra british columbia. Sasol har betalat motsvarande C$ 1050 miljoner för 50% av tillgångarna. Sasol som har GTL (gas to liquid) som affärsidé gör det troligt att Sasol vill utveckla detta även i Canada.

Värdering:

Jag hittade en värdering på Questerre med ovanstående affär som referensram.

Here is my my valuation ( for what its worth ) based on the transaction between TLM and Sasol.

Yesterday Sasol paid $1.05 billion for 4.8 tcf of gas in the ground. This works out to $218,750,000 per tcf.
Qec has 4.36tcf using a 10 % recovery rate ( based on Qec's most recent presentation)

4.36 x 218,750,000 =$ 953,750,000 divided by 235,000,000 ( number of shares outstanding ) = $4.05 per share.

Add: the overriding royalty of 4 1/4 . 4.25% x 13.64 tcf ( tlm's acreage ) = .5797 tcf x$ 218,750,000 =$.54 per share.

Add: conventional asset value of $53.1 million or $.23 a share.

add: cash on hand approx. $.68 per share.

I'm adding another $1.00 per share for the land not included in NSAI'S evaluation ( a somewhat arbitrary amount )

So total comes to 4.05+.54+.23+.+.68 + 1.00 = $6.50 per share.

Notes ( positive)

1) Qec's figures of 4.36 tcf are based on NSAI's valuation of Nov 09. This is prior to the horizontal results of St Edouard which could increase this estimate.

2) The estimate of 4.36 tcf is based on recoverable rates of 10% . The range of recovery looked at was from 5% (low) to 23%(high). The 23% recovery factor would result in 13.78 tcf for Qec which would almost triple my price.

3) The estimate of 4.36 tcf is based on 177,000 net acres between the Yamaska fault and Logan's line. This represents 72% of Qec's acreage so I assigned a value of $1.00 for the other acreage.( you can make your own values).

4) The Utica is located closer to major markets and might be worth more per mmbtu.

Notes(negative)

1) Montney development is already approved and much more advanced.

2) Sasol could have paid a premium for the possibility of a GTL plant in B.C.

3) Montney gas may be easier and cheaper to produce.

Even if QEC owned no acreage in the Utica it would still be worth a minimum of $1.45

I hope these figures make some sense. Remember there are many factors that are assumed and approximated.
http://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/MessageDetailThread.aspx?p=0&m=29031011&l=0&r=0&s=QEC&t=LIST

Sammanfattningsvis

Givet att värderingen stämmer har vi med dagens (NOK/C$) en riktkurs på 5,94*6,5= 38,61 NOK

Detta ger med dagens kurs 11,63 NOK en möjlig kursökning med ~230%