Flörtar med katastrof

2009-02-06 11:52, Edited at: 2010-06-11 12:03

Vet inte om alla känner till Paul Krugman? Om inte så tycker jag att ni definitivt bör stifta bekantskap med denne man. I alla fall om ni (som jag) är någorlunda intresserade av de makroekonomiska problem som makthavarna och vår globala ekonomi ställs inför. Så gott som varje dag.

För att göra en lång historia kort. Paul Krugman är en amerikansk nationalekonom som så sent som 2008 belönades med Sveriges Riksbanks pris i ekonomisk vetenskap till Alfred Nobels minne. Han är till vardags professor i nationalekonomi och internationella relationer vid universitetet i Princeton i New Jersey samt är kolumnist för New York Times. Det är det senast nämnda som jag tänkte anspela på i dagens blogg.

I New York Times har denne eminente ekonom sin egen blogg. Det hittar Ni för övrigt här: http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/. Definitivt värt att titta till någon/några gånger i veckan. För er som inte orkar klistrar jag in idag en mycket läsvärd blogg om deflationshotet som den amerikanska ekonomin står inför:

"There has been a distinct change in tone from the Obama team today, as they seem to have become suddenly aware that there’s a real risk that the stimulus plan will either fail to pass, or be emasculated to the point that it doesn’t come close to doing the job. Obama himself has warned of catastrophe if we fail to act, and — finally!– denounced the tax-cut philosophy_. Meanwhile, Larry Summers has finally_ made the point I’ve been pushing for a while — that we’re at major risk of falling into a deflationary trap.

I thought it might be useful to present a bit of evidence behind that concern. The figure above plots an estimate of the output gap — the difference between actual and potential GDP, as a percentage of potential — and the change in the inflation rate. Both series are taken from the IMF WEO database_, for convenience, and use data from 1980-2007._

It’s not a perfect fit — this is economics, not physics, and anyway stuff besides the output gap bounces inflation around from year to year. But still, there’s a clear correlation, driven largely but not entirely by the deep slump and disinflation of the early 1980s, and an implied slope of about 0.5 — that is, every percentage point by which real GDP fall short of potential tends to reduce the inflation rate by about half a point over the course of the year.

And right now the CBO is saying that in the absence of a policy action the average output gap will average 6.8 percent over the next two years. Do the math: if anything like the historical relationship between output and inflation holds, we’re looking at major deflation.

OK, maybe that relationship won’t hold — getting to actual deflation may take a deeper slump than merely reducing the inflation rate. And maybe a regression driven in part by 80s data isn’t a good guide to current events. But deflation is a huge risk — and getting out of a deflationary trap is very, very hard.

We truly are flirting with disaster"

Ännu en intressant krönika hittar ni här:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/06/opinion/06krugman.html?_r=1&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss