Jag skrev i mina forsta bloggar i slutet av 2007 att det enda man vet med sakerhet om de framtida kriserna ar att SEB och familjen Wallenberg kommer att klara sig.
Varenda krona som Sveriges Riksbank och riksdag och regering tar ger till bankerna for att de skall klara sig ar att ta en krona fran det svenska valfardsprogrammet och statsbudgeten.
Det ar over 500 miljarder svenska kronor utlånade från Riksbanken till svenska banker (SEB och Swedbank).
Det ar over 200 miljarder utlånade fran Riksgalden till de bada bankerna.
Dessutom har Sveriges Riksdag gett en garanti for svenska banker pa 1 500 miljarder kronor.
Det ar pengar som alltsa inte kan anvandas for svenskarnas val och ve for narvarande.
Kommer det har att gynna skattebetalarna och den vanliga svensken. Absolut inte. Det kommer att klara SEB och Swedbank.
Svenskarna får se sin pension minskad for all framtid. Det borjar redan 2010.
De 2000 miljarder svenskarna har reserverat for bankerna motsvarar den norska oljefondens innehav. Den norska oljefonden ar varldens storsta och rikaste fond for narvarande.
Det har ar inte att hysa agg mot SEB och Swedbank att beratta det har utan det ar att beslysa ett fakta.
Tre professor sag pa ett tidigt stadium att krisen skulle komma.
Det var Nicolai Taleb, professor och trader fran New York som skrev boken “The Black Swan”.
Det var professor Peter Shiff som ar 2006 blev utskrattad i amerikansk TV nar han berattade om kommande kris (se klipp pa You Tube).
Det var professorn och Nobelpristagaren Joseph Stiglitz som varnade.
I dag sager alla tre att de såg krisen komma, men trodde inte att bankerna och deras ledningar skulle klara sig så bra.
- Ingen i ledningarna for bankerna har fatt gå, sa Peter Schiff i amerikansk TV harom kvallen.
De tre amerikanska professor sager i dag att banksystemet i USA (och varfor inte i Sverige ocksa) har lurat skjortan av det politiska etablisemanget genom utpressning.
Det ar bara bankerna och inget annat som orsakat den ekonomiska krisen. De har genom sina affarer gatt pa nasan och i stallet for att aktieagare och ledning har fatt statt for konsekvenserna har vanliga skattebetalarre fatt betala rakningen.
Vad hade hant om nagra stora banker fatt nya agare och de gamla hade fatt ga och ta konsekkvensernas. Hade det blivit en finansiell meltdown i varlden.
- Absolut inte, sager professor Joseph Stigitz.
Professor Taleb sager:
- Fundera pa om busschaufforer som hade orsakat svara olyckor i samhallet om de skulle fa pengar av staten till att kopa nya bussar och fortsatta i samma stil.
Tre professor sag pa ett tidigt stadium att krisen skulle komma.
Det var Nicolai Taleb, professor och trader fran New York som skrev boken “The Black Swan”.
Det var professor Peter Shiff som blev utskrattad i amerikansk TV nar han berattade om kommande kris (se klipp pa You Tube).
Det var professorn och Nobelpristagaren Joseph Stiglitz.
I dag sager alla tre att de sag krisen komma, men trodde inte att bankerna och deras ledningar skulle klara sig sa bra.
- Ingen i ledningarna for bankerna har fatt ga. sa Peter Schiff i amerikansk TV harom kvallen.
Professor Joseph Stiglitz blev interjuad i The Nation vid besok i Bangkok harom veckan:
They tried to tell us a story. The story was you would create panic. This is the tactic the Bush administration perfected every time they wanted something, [like] the war on terror. Well, we continue that, but now it isn’t the fear of terrorism, it’s the fear of financial meltdown. If you took a moment to look at it, if we had debt for equity swap and watched the shareholders fall, you play the rules of capitalism. People would have had more confidence in the companies because the money is not going out to the shareholders.
So is Obama a socialist?
Oh, defenitely not. Quite the contrary. It’s not socialism because socialism cares about people, ordinary people but we’re giving money to the rich system. This is old-fashioned corporate welfarism. It’s the same thing that Bush did, saving the corporations. What we do in the US is we put the bank first and we don’t do very much about the people who are in their homes. We said if we pour enough hundreds of billions dollars into banks, maybe ordinary Americans would benefit, maybe that will happen.
Does it happen?
No. It doesn’t happen.
Ten principles for a Black Swan-proof world
By Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Published: April 7 2009 20:02 | Last updated: April 7 2009 20:02
1. What is fragile should break early while it is still small. Nothing should ever become too big
to fail. Evolution in economic life helps those with the maximum amount of hidden risks – and
hence the most fragile – become the biggest.
2. No socialisation of losses and privatisation of gains. Whatever may need to be bailed out
should be nationalised; whatever does not need a bail-out should be free, small and riskbearing.
We have managed to combine the worst of capitalism and socialism. In France in the
1980s, the socialists took over the banks. In the US in the 2000s, the banks took over the
government. This is surreal.
3. People who were driving a school bus blindfolded (and crashed it) should never be given a__new bus. The economics establishment (universities, regulators, central bankers, government
officials, various organisations staffed with economists) lost its legitimacy with the failure of the
system. It is irresponsible and foolish to put our trust in the ability of such experts to get us out
of this mess. Instead, find the smart people whose hands are clean.
4. Do not let someone making an “incentive” bonus manage a nuclear plant – or your financial__risks. Odds are he would cut every corner on safety to show “profits” while claiming to be
“conservative”. Bonuses do not accommodate the hidden risks of blow-ups. It is the asymmetry
of the bonus system that got us here. No incentives without disincentives: capitalism is about
rewards and punishments, not just rewards.
5. Counter-balance complexity with simplicity. Complexity from globalisation and highly
networked economic life needs to be countered by simplicity in financial products. The complex
economy is already a form of leverage: the leverage of efficiency. Such systems survive thanks
to slack and redundancy; adding debt produces wild and dangerous gyrations and leaves no
room for error. Capitalism cannot avoid fads and bubbles: equity bubbles (as in 2000) have
proved to be mild; debt bubbles are vicious.
6. Do not give children sticks of dynamite, even if they come with a warning . Complex
derivatives need to be banned because nobody understands them and few are rational enough
to know it. Citizens must be protected from themselves, from bankers selling them “hedging”
products, and from gullible regulators who listen to economic theorists.
7. Only Ponzi schemes should depend on confidence. Governments should never need to_“restore confidence”._ Cascading rumours are a product of complex systems. Governments
cannot stop the rumours. Simply, we need to be in a position to shrug off rumours, be robust
in the face of them.
8. Do not give an addict more drugs if he has withdrawal pains. Using leverage to cure the
problems of too much leverage is not homeopathy, it is denial. The debt crisis is not a
temporary problem, it is a structural one. We need rehab.
9. Citizens should not depend on financial assets or fallible “expert” advice for their retirement.
Economic life should be definancialised. We should learn not to use markets as storehouses of
value: they do not harbour the certainties that normal citizens require. Citizens should
experience anxiety about their own businesses (which they control), not their investments
(which they do not control).
10. Make an omelette with the broken eggs. Finally, this crisis cannot be fixed with makeshift
repairs, no more than a boat with a rotten hull can be fixed with ad-hoc patches. We need to
rebuild the hull with new (stronger) materials; we will have to remake the system before it does
so itself. Let us move voluntarily into Capitalism 2.0 by helping what needs to be broken break
on its own, converting debt into equity, marginalising the economics and business school
establishments, shutting down the “Nobel” in economics, banning leveraged buyouts, putting
bankers where they belong, clawing back the bonuses of those who got us here, and teaching
people to navigate a world with fewer certainties.
Then we will see an economic life closer to our biological environment: smaller companies,
richer ecology, no leverage. A world in which entrepreneurs, not bankers, take the risks and
companies are born and die every day without making the news.
In other words, a place more resistant to black swans.